Delusions Impede Aviation Future
By Scott Spangler on July 6th, 2015
Airbus recently flew the first production version of its Voltair E-Fan 2.0, a two-seat electric airplane. The realization of this aviation technology is something we should all celebrate because it is another important step toward aviation’s future. Offsetting this step is that the realization of this technology is being hailed, at least by the Wall Street Journal’s special feature’s section, as a the possible fulfillment of a “dream of science fiction writers for years for everyone to have their own personal flying machine parked next to the car in their garage.”
Dreamers have been pursuing this immortal delusion since its birth during the optimistic aviation future following World War II. Celebrating the possibilities of this maturing technology is but another unfulfilled dream because it doesn’t consider—or address—the realities of life in the wide awake world.
First, getting a driver’s license, let along a car, is a declining desire in the next generation of pilots and aircraft owners. As reported by Forbes magazine, federal census and highway administration data show that 27 percent of 16 year olds get their driver’s licenses today; in 1983, it was 47 percent.
Some of the reasons offered by the Forbe’s article include lack of time for driver’s education and the lack of money needed to buy a car. Given this data, it seems safe to assume that many in this generation would not invest many thousands of dollars and many months of training necessary to earn a pilot certificate and instrument rating necessary to operate in most weather conditions.
Another practical reality is airspace capacity in the United States and Europe, the two largest aviation markets. Unless you live in the boonies, you have to get in line to get airborne, and most people who live in the boonies can’t afford to pursue such expensive dreams. And, I wonder, what about the roadways that connect an airplane in every garage to an airport, the portal to the kingdom of the sky?
Dreamers should not surrender their pursuit of any technology in the face of such realities, but at the same time they should not support this work with science fiction dreams because it is counterproductive in a world no longer shaped by mass market mentality. Perhaps a better path would be that being blazed by medical gene therapy that customizes treatment to an individual’s specific needs. –Scott Spangler, Editor
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July 8th, 2015 at 6:12 am
Celebrating the possibilities of this maturing technology is but another unfulfilled dream because it doesnt consider or address the realities of life in the wide awake world.
July 15th, 2015 at 7:12 am
The concept of the plane is amazing & so is the design, I think it looks amazing!